The most serious and successful players in the game follow a simple and disciplined strategy. Remember too that luck, which is often the major deciding factor in the art of wagering, will run against your best effort, from time to time. Have no fear, for in the longer term even your luck will tend to balance out. Sports bets are most commonly placed on the outcome of a single event or game.
Make a Decision
* Weigh all of the facts derived from your homework.
* Compare your findings and picks with those of the pertinent handicapper/odds makers.
* Make your wager. Make the best decision and you will win.
Successful wagering on the outcome of real events is a highly developed skill. It is acquired only by way of being analytical, consistent and disciplined in your approach to your hobby. If you follow a sound and consistent strategy in your wagering, your percentage of wins will increase. And you should understand that you need only a small edge to become a winner.
Pointspread
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched - meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
Reading and Understanding Money Lines.
Money line results are decided by an event`s straight-up winner, without regard to any point spread, since there is no point spread. Oddsmakers set the money line so that more money must be risked on the favorite (the expected winner) and less money on the underdog in an effort to balance the willingness of bettors to back the respective sides of a contest.
How the Betting Line is Made.
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.
Power ratings are the oddsmaker`s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team`s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game`s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team`s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team`s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.
Since the oddsmaker`s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public`s expected USC bias.
Wagering Tactics
The would-be successful player should, over time, develop effective wagering tactics in order to achieve and maintain an edge. For example, he/she might consider buying points to obtain more favorable odds.
By buying points the player can move a point spread up to three, one-half points in favor. The player will have to pay an extra ten percent for each half point that the line is moved.
Keep in mind, that when buying points on or off the point spread of 3, there is an additional ten percent vigorish (bookmaker`s commission). Also note that points cannot be bought on money lines or half - time point spreads.
